ADDRESS - A PREREQUISITE FOR SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT

Submitted by IED.TJ on Thursday, January 16, 2025 - 11:33am

In the annual address of the Founder of Peace and National Unity - Leader of the Nation, the President of the Republic of Tajikistan- Emomali Rahmon the main part is undoubtedly devoted to issues of socio-economic development of the country, population growth, sustainability of demographic processes, sustainability of marital and family relations and careful attitude to the preservation of traditions and customs in the future. 
It is known that in 2024 the population of the Republic of Tajikistan was 10288.3 thousand and compared to 2004 the population, which was 6598.8 thousand, increased and in percentage terms is - 55.9%.
In particular, in his address in 2024 he notes that the annual population growth requires paying attention to the standard and quality of life of the population, the creation of new jobs with adequate wages, the development of new agricultural lands and other issues. All these areas of domestic policy are socio-economic characteristics - in demographic science it is called socio-demographic development.
Socio-demographic development of the territory is understood as "the sustainability of demographic processes due to the efficient use of socio-economic resources". Socio-demographic development is an important component of the sustainable development of territories. 
Since the last 20 years, that is, from 2004 to 2024, the annual population growth is - 2.2%, which by today's standards is a good indicator, which means that in the future there will be no depopulation of the population, it will be possible to observe positive economic growth if labor resources are used effectively. In this regard, the President of the Republic of Tajikistan noted that providing the population with productive employment is one of the goals of the national strategy of the state. During the period of independence, 4.1 million jobs were created and restored in various economic sectors of the country. In order to effectively regulate the labor market, there was a need to develop an active employment policy and a fruitful organizational and economic mechanism for creating new jobs in all sectors of the economy. In this regard, ensuring productive employment of the population, as one of the strategic goals, should be under the constant attention of all government agencies and the private sector.
It should be noted that the republic has accumulated a large demographic dividend. For example, in 2024 -57.5% of the total population is working age, 35.9% are children under 15, and only 6.6% are people of older working age. In 2022, the labor force in Tajikistan amounted to - 5.653 thousand people, of which - 2.534 thousand or - 44.8% were employed in the economy - 3.066 thousand (54.2%) were economically inactive, and -53 thousand or - 2.1% were unemployed. (Statistics Agency, 2022). The low share of employment in the economy is also a factor in the high birth rate, since high employment is associated with the involvement of women in social production and a high level of education of the population. Education, as we know, is the most important determinant of fertility.
The youth of the population determine its high demographic potential, which creates the opportunity for a further increase in the number of births. Thus, in 2021, the share of the population of reproductive age in urban areas was - 53.5%, and in rural areas - 51.1%, respectively. This explains the prospect of an increase in the number of births even with a possible decrease in the birth rate. A large share of the population of reproductive age, according to forecasts of the UN Population Division, will remain in the distant future. The National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period 2030 indicates that by this year the population should be - 11.5 million people, of which almost - 60.0% will be people of working age. At the same time, the majority of the population of Tajikistan - 71.2% - lived in rural areas in 2023. In rural areas, the economic value of children is higher, and the birth rate is higher. As is known, urbanization is also a factor in reducing the birth rate through the spread of the urban lifestyle of the population.
Due to the increase in the population, the issue of increasing the level and quality of education of the population is acute. Since the share of the population from 0 to 24 years old is -53.3% of the total. It should be noted that -53.3 of the population are children who must go to kindergarten, primary school, secondary school, colleges, technical schools and universities, which requires huge financial and material resources for this category of the population to receive education. It should be noted that the population of Tajikistan is considered young from a demographic point of view and if the population in 2024 was more than -10 million, according to the National Development Strategy for the period up to 2030, the population will be 11.5 million, in percentage terms -10.0%, in 2050 - 15.2 million (in percentage terms - 50.0%). In this context, the Government of the country regularly takes the necessary measures to organize new jobs, increase wages, pensions and scholarships, as well as to increase the cash income of the population. In connection with the importance of this issue and the solution of the education issue, the message notes that over the past 3 years, more than -1,500 educational facilities, i.e. preschool and secondary general education - 660 healthcare facilities- 480 sports facilities -175 cultural and entertainment facilities, and thousands of other social and industrial facilities have been created and commissioned in the country. Entrepreneurs and many other patriotic residents of the country have made a significant contribution to all these improvement works.
Along with this, it is necessary to strengthen the process of training programmers and other specialists needed for the development of the digital economy and programming in the educational system of institutions of all levels of vocational training.
In this process, it is considered important to create the best conditions for training personnel, provide various benefits, stimulate specialists in the field of information technology and retraining in leading foreign educational institutions.
The government of the country attaches paramount importance to the development of the education sector.
In order to further improve the level of well-being of the country's population and strengthen social protection of the population, from September 1, 2025: to increase the official salaries of employees of preschool and general secondary education institutions by - 30 percent and the official salaries of employees of other institutions in the field of education, science, culture, sports, health care, social protection institutions, government bodies and public administration and other budgetary institutions, as well as to increase scholarships by -20 percent.
In the final part, I would like to note that in his annual Address, the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, pays special attention to demographic issues, since the country's economic growth will depend on the quantity and quality of the population. In this regard, the issues of education of the population and ensuring productive employment are acute.

Subkhonov Akbar, Head of the Department of Demographic Research, Institute of Economics and Demography, National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, PhD in Economics.

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